Culture

The Week In Footy: Your Highly Scientific Guide To The 2017 Finals

And then there were eight...

by Tom Clift  28 August 2017
AFL Recap Round 23

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And then there were eight.

For a season that’s been oft-described as the most unpredictable in living memory, it made sense that the makeup of the eight went down to the very last match. Nobody, including me, gave the Eagles much of a chance against the ladder-leading Crows. Nobody except maybe Demons supporters, who after watching their side put in a non-performance against the Magpies must have known deep down that an upset at Subiaco was on the cards.

As a long-suffering Richmond supporter, I know all too well the pain of watching your side finish ninth. But finishing ninth by half a point of percentage after being told for months that you were going to make the finals for the first time in over a decade? They’ll be crying over their smoked salmon for weeks.

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I managed to make it to two games in person over the weekend. Was it because I love footy? Yes. But also, the AFL announced that it would be selling pies for $2 ahead of every match. Notwithstanding the distinct possibility that these particular pies have been sitting in deep freeze since the opening round of the JLT, a good deal is a good deal.

Buddy Dripping With Cream

Now that I’m pretending to be a football journalist, I feel obliged to mention how great Lance Franklin is at least once a week. Fortunately, he doesn’t make it all that hard.

Admittedly, my grandma could probably kick a bag against the Blues too, but ten goals is still a pretty decent effort. Hell, the entire Carlton side only managed eight between them.

Alright mate, nobody likes a show off.

“That’s got cream dripping off it,” declared Fox Footy’s Dwayne Russell as Buddy nailed his tenth. That, by the way, is exactly why I watch games with the sound turned all the way down.

In Russell’s defence, he wasn’t the only person in the media to get a little bit carried away with his coverage.

…nah, probably it was not.

Cats Win The Rights To A “Home” Final

Maybe the biggest game of the round, in terms of judging who is a genuine premiership threat, took place at Simonds Stadium on Saturday night. The game between Geelong and GWS was meant to be close, but in the end the Cats cruised home.

At the risk of sounding petty, there are few things more satisfying than watching the Giants lose. In fact, maybe the only thing more satisfying is watching the Suns lose, and to be honest we’ve seen that so often recently that it no longer feels special. Geelong absolutely steamrolled the AFL’s bright orange test tube baby, and have the look of a team that can do genuine damage come the second half of September.

One thing’s for sure: the Friday night Qualifying Final against Richmond is going to be absolutely massive. A small part of me feels bad that Geelong is being made to play their home final at the MCG. Hahaha, just kidding, absolutely no part of me feels bad about that, sucked in Cats.

Buckley Gets A Two Year Contract Extension

Lol.

AFLW State Of Origin

Get around it! After knocking their inaugural season out of the goddamn park, the stars of women’s footy will take to Etihad Stadium this Saturday night for the first ever AFLW State of Origin clash.

State of Origin as a concept has never really caught on in the AFL, and it would be just awesome if it was the women’s competition that finally made people care.

Moana Hope, Daisy Pearce, Sarah Perkins and Ellie Blackburn are just some of the big names who’ll be pulling on the geurnsey for Victoria, going up against the likes of Sabrina Frederick-Traub, Tayla Harris, Ebony Marinoff and Katie Brennan for the Allies.

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By then, we should also know which sides will be joining the AFLW when it expands in 2019.

Sorry, I don’t really have any jokes here, I’m just genuinely very excited about this game.

A Highly Scientific Guide To Week One Of The Finals

It’s been 23 long weeks, but we finally have our finals fixture. In this maddening season, how is September actually going to play out? I’ve done some calculations and I think I have the answers.

Sydney vs. Essendon

Let’s start with an easy one. Full credit to the Bombers, who have really turned it around this season after years under the shadow of the supplements saga. I’ve really enjoyed the brand of footy they’ve been playing this year, and would like to see them do well. That said, they’ve got about as much chance of beating Sydney as Melbourne do.

What, too soon?

Port Adelaide vs. West Coast

The other elimination final is a much harder game to call, given that both West Coast and Port Adelaide are two of the flakiest sides in the comp.

Port, to their credit, have at least been consistent in absolutely flogging teams beneath them while playing like shit again the rest of the eight. They did manage to win fairly comfortably against the Eagles back in Round 17, but other than that the only top eight side they’ve beaten is Sydney, and that was back in Round 1, a full month before anyone bothered to tell the Swans the season had actually started.

West Coast, on the other hand… who the hell even knows? Good opponents, bad opponents, home, away. There is seemingly no way of knowing which Eagles side is going to show up on a given day – although after taking it to the Giants last week and beating Adelaide on Sunday, they do at least seem to be peaking at the right time.

Adding even more spice is that, despite all our talk of Adelaide Oval being a fortress, Port are 0-3 against West Coast at the ground.

Personally I think we should boot them both out and let the Dogs have another crack.

Adelaide vs. Greater Western Sydney

Unbelievably, the Crows are coming into this match on the back of two consecutive losses – in fact, with just two wins from their past five matches, they have the worst form out of any of the top eight teams. Still, you get the feeling that the game against the Eagles doesn’t count for much, given they already had the minor premiership locked up.

As for the Giants, commentators have been telling us all year how they’ve been crippled by injury, and how their best footy is still ahead of them. Leon Cameron had better hope that that’s the case, because what his side served up against Geelong was pretty bloody poor.

Adelaide will go into this game favourites. It’s their home ground, and also they’re better at football.

Geelong vs. Richmond

Every fibre of my being is petrified that we’ll choke, like this time and this time and who could forget this time.

Then again… fuck it. Richmond by 80 points, Dusty has 40 disposals and signs a seven-year deal to stay at Tigerland right there on the pitch. If you’re going to take a punt, may as well go big.

Science.

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Read more about this year’s AFL season here.

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Tom Clift is Junkee’s After-Hours Editor. He tweets at @tomclift.