More Than 9.2 Million Aussies Have Voted In The Marriage Equality Survey

Woohoo! The ABS just dropped its first weekly update on the number of postal survey forms received, and as of last Friday they’re estimating that 57.5 percent of forms (or 9.2 million) have been returned.

The estimate is based on Australia Post’s count of the number of boxes of sorted envelopes — no one is counting numbers of individual forms at this stage. The count is also adjusted to estimate for spoiled or invalid forms. It’s also worth noting that there’s a delay between people posting their forms and Australia Post receiving them, which could contribute to the ABS figures being lower than the actual number of returned forms. All of this is just to say: this is an estimate, and the ABS would like us to remember that please and not go nuts.

That said, how do those figures match up with what we expected? In short, they’re a little lower than polling has indicated, but postal delay is probably to blame for some of that.

Yesterday, polling conducted by Newgate Research for the Equality Campaign revealed that 77 percent of Australia’s 16 million enrolled voters had already returned their postal survey form. A separate ReachTel poll conducted by Sky News returned a similar figure of 79%. That’s somewhere around 12.5 million votes, give or take.

As for the vote breakdown, while the ABS won’t be releasing data on the count, the Sky News poll found that 64 percent of the five thousand people surveyed had returned their ballot with a Yes vote, while only 15.5 percent had returned a No vote.

While that all seems like pretty good news for the Yes campaign, the official advice is for cautious optimism. As Alex Greenwich wrote last week, if you want marriage equality Australia this is no time to be complacent. ABS Deputy Statistician and Taskforce Lead, Jonathan Palmer is also urging people to return their forms, or request a replacement if you haven’t received yours.

Responding to the ABS estimates this afternoon, Equality Campaign Director Tiernan Brady said that while the figures are “really good in terms of turnout”, the campaign “will not give up a single day making sure everybody out there knows how important this is. This is a vote about the lives and dignity of real people.”

Brady was joined by Co-Chair of Australian Marriage Equality Alex Greenwich, who added that the campaign’s research and polling indicated “a number of young people have filled in their survey forms but have not yet returned them.”

.@AlexGreenwich: our polling indicates some young people have voted yes but not posted their ballot yet #auspol https://t.co/a2NiTgu5XV pic.twitter.com/SN3MOtOW7t

— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) October 3, 2017

“You have not voted until you have posted your Yes,” he said. “Do not leave your survey form in your gym bag or on the kitchen table. Put that in the box — this document is too important.”

The Coalition for Marriage, meanwhile, have released a statement saying that they are encouraged by the high turnout, which “demonstrates that the Australian public understand the gravity of the decision before us”. They also stressed that “half of the country is yet to make up its mind; this conversation is still wide open”, and emphasised their commitment to campaigning until the ballot closes.

The next update from the ABS will come next Tuesday afternoon. Put it in your calendar, folks.