Follow The Spill (Again): A Junkee Liveblog

READERS: This page is in more need of refreshing than someone who’s hankering for a cooool iced tea. By which I mean refresh the page a lot.

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Strap in, friends – what a day to be alive.

Just quickly, here is what needs to happen for Kevin Rudd to become Prime Minister:

1) The petition, currently being circulated by Rudd supporters needs to get 1/3rd of caucus signing on. This means that there will be a super special caucus meeting.

2) THEN at that caucus meeting, the majority of caucus need to agree on a leadership ballot.

3) THEN Rudd needs to be elected with a (in practice overwhelming) majority. But crucially…

4) Rudd needs to actually want the job.

With that in mind…here’s how this has gone.

EARLIER:

Windsor won’t stand in the next election. Neither will Oakeshot. Katter, ever the one to buck the trend, will still stand. Holds a presser saying that if Rudd took the leadership then he wouldn’t support a of vote of no confidence. Also talks at lengths about ‘who is driving the bus’?. Unclear with Katter if this is a metaphor or a literal question.

THEN:

12:30 – Lenore Taylor breaks the news on The Guardian that the petition is circulating.

12:31 – Peter Hartcher’s phone explodes.

1:00 – Bob Carr asked about the spill, craftily quotes Macbeth to make everyone feel dumb and shut up.

1:30 – Senate passes Gonski to rapturous silence.

1:34 – Michael Kroeger, on Sky, quotes the Importance of Being Ernest because why not.

1:35 – Senator Thislethwaite (THE Senator Thistlethwaite) says that he hasn’t seen a petition or been asked to sign one. Says he wouldn’t anyway, but seems a bit hurt.

1.39 – The Daily Tele says they’ve confirmed Rudd will challenge. Then again, their source is a Facebook page with a picture of Kevin Rudd on it. So there’s that.

1.44 – Mark Kenny reckons that if the petition gets up, it’s over for the PM.

1.46 – Tony Abbott issues statement – is remarkably not ‘Wheeeeeeeeeeeee!’

1.47 – PVO says that this went public earlier than intended, wanted it to be done after Question Time. Yes, that would have been a much better idea.

1.50 – According to Bill Shorten’s people, his position hasn’t changed.

1.50 – Simon Bensen (Daily Tele) thinks Rudd has the numbers. Also says that Rudd is going to challenge ‘because you can’t circulate a petition without a candidate’. It really needs to be stressed that this is in no way true.

1.52 – Minutes away from Question Time. Guardian releases this picture for no discernable reason other than that it is wonderful.

1.55 – Reports emerge that Rudd won’t be flying to China. China presumably pretty stoked about that.

1.57 – Lyndal Curtis sets some things straight. She hasn’t seen a petition, Gavin Marshall (caucus chair) hasn’t seen the petition. This means that there has been no meeting set yet.

1.58 – There’s some interesting discussion about whether the PM will call a caucus meeting, as she has the (pretty lame) power to do. This means the Rudd camp can’t shore up the numbers overnight.

2.00 – Latika Bourke says she’s found one Labor MP who has confirmed that the petition exists! Won’t confirm if they signed it.

2.01 – Question Time. Anna Burke starts with two condolence motions.

2.03 – PM is, confusingly, talking about another petition entirely. I hope that clears things up.

2.04 – Mr Abbott is also talking about the Yirrkala Petition. #toomanypetitions

2.07 – The PM answers her first question, it’s about whether the family car is exempt from the Carbon Tax… (for the record it is…so that’s good)

2.08 – PM says that if Abbott elected there will be complete chaos…

2.10 – No sign of Joel Fitzgibbon in the house.

2.11 – Member for Bass with a Dorothy Dixer about Gonski.

2.20 – Belarusian delegation attending QT. Why does this always happen when there’s a foreign delegation!?

2.21 – Sophie Mirabella offers the devastating evidence that Obama used the word ‘direct’ while talking about climate change. JUST LIKE DIRECT ACTION, GUYS.

2.31 – Not a heap happening in QT. Let’s watch this for a while. #StandWithWendy

2.50 – Abbott just asked the PM if she’ll move the election to August 3rd. lol

2.55 – Abbott calls for a suspension of standing orders.

2.57 – Abbott waxes poetical ‘We see the tremors of leadership change shaking this parliament’

2.59 – Abbott “I was very conscious, as the father of three daughters, how momentous the first female PM was”.

3.00 – After a lengthy ramble about why he doesn’t like the govt, ends with ‘and that’s why we should suspend standing orders’. I remember this from last time.

3.03 – Abbott: ‘This is such a great country, we are such a great people, we have such a great future’. Awww shucks, thanks, bud!

3.04 – The member for Sturt (Pyne) seconds the motion. He says he feels sorry for this country. Says the country has become the laughing stock of the region. This is weird, given that we’re such great people and such a great country.

3.06 – Pyne calls the PM Lady Macbeth. Shakespeare’s really getting a run today.

3.10 – Albo rises for the 81st time in the parliament to oppose the SSO

3.10 – Albo starts talking about how Abbott is trying to sell ‘human Tony’. Not sure where he’s going with this… ‘My question is for the leader of the opposition – you are walking through the desert, and you see a tortoise…’

3.13 – ‘The longest dummy-spit in Australian history’ Not a bad line from Albo.

3.20 – Division.

3.25 – Motion to suspend standing orders defeated.

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Nothing is happening, Richo has gone on Sky and said that the petition not only exists but also is chock full of signatures. That may well be but remember this. We’ll be back when things actually happen. I am going to say that it is on like Donkey Kong, because if it doesn’t happen I can just say that Donkey Kong hasn’t been on for decades.

4.15 – As it turns out, a lot was happening. The Prime Minister sat down with David Speers and announced that there would be a leadership ballot tonight at 7pm.

4.16 – She says that whoever loses the ballot needs to retire from politics. This is known in Canberra as ‘Thunderdome rules’.

4.20 – This probably suggests that the PM thinks she has the numbers, or alternatively that she’s had just about enough of this bullshit.

4.24 – The PM says that the petition is like the Loch Ness Monster ‘everyone talks about it but no one has seen it. also it is a gigantic Scottish water lizard’.

4.27 – Richo’s just made a few more calls and says that the die is already cast.

4.30 – Giggling to himself, Kevin Rudd boards a plane to China.

4.31 – We’re apparently going to hear from Bill Shorten soon. It’s unlikely that he’ll switch camps, but the Rudd people most likely don’t need him anyway.

4.37 – Michael Danby says that he’ll still be voting for Gillard in the ballot. Danby says ‘I believe she will. I hope she will. I believe it would be for the good of the country if she did’.

4.39 – Danby says that Fitzgibbon never would have been able to get away with the kind of behaviour outside of a hung parliament.

4.41 – Danby basically just called Rudd a great big pussy – in Yiddish.

4.48 – Malcolm Farr “This is the Harry Potter solution. Neither can live while the other one does (pause) I’m talking about Voldemort” we knew what you were talking about, Malcolm.

4.53 – Rudd is going to address the media in a couple of minutes. It would be amazing if he did so from China.

4.49 – Sky says that Rudd’s presser is to ‘confirm’ that he’s running in tonight’s ballot.

5.06 – Rudd will commit to resigning if he loses. Peter Hartcher will commit to a murderous rampage through the streets of Sydney.

5.07 – Windsor’s valedictory speech goes largely ignored, which is a shame because he’s a statistically improbably excellent member of the lower house.

5.11 – Kevin Rudd presser starts.

5.12 – Rudd announces his candidacy. ‘The truth is, many, many MPs have requested me for a long long time.’ aaaaand then the nation remembers why we didn’t like him.

5.13 – Says it’s for the voices of the Australian people.

5.14 – “Australian families are scared of what Tony Abbott could do to them.”

5.15 – “Australian’s want a real choice at this election. And they are frustrated that we are leaving them with no choice but to vote for Mr Abbott”…well I would just suggest that maybe those people don’t know how elections work…

5.17 – Rudd vows no retribution or paybacks, which is interesting because he keyed Bill Shorten’s car on the way to the presser.

5.18 – Ooop, and it’s back to ‘Julia’.

5.19 – Rudd won’t take questions, he will, however, have a series of things shouted at him by journalists as he walks out of the room.

Waiting for things to happen.

5.40 – While we wait for things to happen, here’s an interesting list of possibilities from the SMH. Does not include [5. Everyone stabs their own eyes out to stop the horror].

5.46 – Richo uses a frankly baffling rugby analogy to explain a point about sexism.

5.50 – There are arguably too many people on Sky. Can’t deal with all this searing insight.

5.51 – It is pointed out that there will probably be two ballots, one for Rudd and one for Albo, who’ll run unopposed.

5.52 – Kieran Gilbert says that making Plibersek DPM would be a good move.

5.53 – So just to recap, the other people that will definitely need to be replaced if Rudd wins the challenge are: Conroy, Swan and Garrett. There are a stack of others but these ones are certain.

5.57 – ‘Someone from the Gillard camp’ tells David Speers that she is still in the lead.

6.04 – Just rewatching the PM’s interview. Didn’t notice how many times she said ‘politics is not about personality’. What the hell kind of a talking point is that? Also not the best thing to say when you consider the govts obsession with TAs character.

6.06 – Also the PMs refusal to say Rudd’s name is not a little Voldemortish.

6.21 – David Speers says that ‘senior ministers in the Gillard camp’ have told him that they are confident that Gillard will win and that the Rudd camp is over-egging the numbers.

6.25 – Bookies call it for Rudd. Banning of live odds clearly doesn’t extend to leadership ballots.

6.25 – Janelle Saffin is supporting Keven Rudd. You know, Janelle Saffin? Member for Page? No? Page is in Queensland.

6.28 – Shorten shortly.

6.34 – It’ll be interesting to see how Shorten goes on this. It’s really unlikely that he’ll back Rudd, but as PVO said, it’s likely that he’ll let his soldiers vote that way.

6.36 – Here we go.

6.37 – Preamble about the achievements of the ALP.

6.38 – ‘I have now come to the view that Labor stands the best chance…with Kevin Rudd as our leader’. WOOOOOOOOOOOAH.

6.40 – That’s that then.

6.40 – A lot of people scream at Bill Shorten.

6.45 – You have no power here, Paul Howes.

6.47 – Apparently Bill Shorten’s wife was NOT the convenor of Women for Gillard not that it matters at all if she was.

6.49 – Paul Murray: “This is just putting a new collar on a three legged dog that the nation wants to put down.” The Sky coverage just got 70% beardier/stupider.

6.50 Grace Collier just tweeted ‘C’mon, I want to see her cry!’ because she doesn’t feel very good about herself.

6.56 – ABC 24 runs out of information and literally starts asking people in the street what they reckon will happen. For the record, Man With Glasses thinks Gillard’s in with a chance.

6.58 – Gillard arrives with her posse.

6.59 – Rudd arrives by himself wearing a blue tie. Media shits self.

7.08 – Reports emerging from the Gillard camp that they have lost, no vote’s taken place, but the Rudd has the numbers.

7.15 – Simon Benson of the Daily Tele says that Rudd will go for an August election.

7.15 – Right now would be a very good time to say the fuck out of Paul Howse’s way.

7.15 – News giving us riveting vision of a man in a green jacket standing in front of a door.

7.21 – 24th of August seems to be the consensus.

7.24 – Michael Kroeger says that Kevin Rudd is mirage…

7.31 – This vote is taking a long time.

7.47 – ABC just aired an attack ad on Kevin Rudd that the Libs clearly had ready to go.

7.51 – Daily Tele reporting the vote is 57 – 45 to Rudd.

7.53 – Returning officer confirms this while George RR Martin looms over him.

7.53 – The Deputy not announced.

That’s it. After Gillard pays a visit to the Governor General, Kevin Rudd becomes the Prime Minister of Australia with 57 votes to 45 from the Labor caucus. Peter Hartcher jizzes himself across the room then sleeps for a month. May go to the polls early, most likely on the 24th of August. I have been doing this for just over seven hours and am now going to leave. Thanks for reading.

Ben Jenkins is a writer. If you enjoyed this coverage you can follow him on twitter at @bencjenkins and support his Dry July campaign here.