Every Burning Question You Have About The 2019 Election, Answered
Who's going to win? What are the key seats? What is preferencing? We've got you covered.
Hey! You’ve probably heard about this little thing called the 2019 Federal Election. And look, we get it; we’re all busy slaves to capitalism whose futures have been poisoned by the selfish generations that came before us. Who’s got time to think about the election? Certainly not you!
Luckily, it’s our job to know/care about these things. So we’ve prepared this handy little guide to some of the big questions about the election.
When Is The 2019 Federal Election?
Saturday, May 18.
When Can I Vote?
Now! Pre-poll voting opened on Monday, so if you’ll be busy on May 18, or you just don’t like waiting in lines, you can head to an early voting centre from today, and tick it off your to-do list. More than 375,000 people have already done it.
About 375,000 people have cast a pre-poll vote after three days of early voting, running at approx 125,000 votes per day so far. This compares to a total of 225,000 votes at the same stage of the 2016 federal election. #ausvotes #auspol
— AEC (@AusElectoralCom) May 1, 2019
You can also apply for a postal vote, learn how to vote from overseas, or find out pretty much everything you need to know about voting from the AEC here.
But if you do love waiting in lines while eating a sausage sizzle, you can find your nearest polling place for the big day here.
What Is Preferencing And How Does It Work?
I’m glad you asked! We have a whole explainer on that here.
Who’s Going To Win The Election?
The short answer is, ‘probably Labor’, but it’s actually a super interesting question (for nerds). This is a rare election where the incumbent government actually has to pick up seats in order to win.
There area few reasons for this: First, the Turnbull government only won a one-seat majority in 2016, then lost another seat when Malcolm Turnbull quit Parliament, sparking a by-election that was won by independent MP Kerryn Phelps.
On top of that, the Australian Electoral Commission announced a re-distribution last year that resulted in a net gain of one seat in the House of Representatives, (two new seats were created, and one was dissolved) and new boundaries in several seats across the country.
BludgerTrack poll aggregate: 51.9-48.1 to Labor. Seat projection: ALP 84, L-NP 61, others 6. https://t.co/MN3FfKfSNv pic.twitter.com/LrmHfQrEzM
— William Bowe (@PollBludger) May 1, 2019
Just by the luck of the draw, those distributions favoured Labor. That means the government starts the campaign on 73 seats notionally, and will need 76 to form government in its own right. Labor starts on 72, up from 69 (nice).
So not only does Scott Morrison have to hold onto all of the seats he’s got, he also needs to win seats off Labor or independents. That’ll be a tough task.
The polls have consistently shown Labor in front for most of the last three years. Current polling has Labor on a 51-49 lead, but those figures are based on some bold assumptions. And of course, there are a few x-factors in the election, like rural independents who might pick up a few seats off the Coalition, and the rise of unpredictable right-wing minor parties like One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.
Still, the most likely outcome seems to be a Labor victory on May 18
What Are The Key Seats?
All seats are equal in an election, but some are more equal than others. Here are a few that you’ll want to keep an eye on on election night.
WARRINGAH: The seat Tony Abbott has held for 25 years is in danger of falling to high profile independent candidate Zali Steggall. Wouldn’t that be a shame?
WENTWORTH: Malcolm Turnbull’s old seat was won by independent Kerryn Phelps late last year. The Liberals’ Dave Sharma is having another crack it, and he’s in with a good shot of winning it back.
DICKSON: Peter Dutton’s seat in Brisbane is in danger of falling to Labor’s Ali France. Dutton’s campaign did not get off to a good start.
HERBERT: The country’s most marginal seat is held by Labor’s Cathy O’Toole by just .02%. The Coalition thinks it will be able to win it back.
FLINDERS: Liberal party defector Julia Banks is challenging Health Minister Greg Hunt. It’s normally a safe seat for the Coalition, but Hunt was one of the main players behind the coup that toppled Malcolm Turnbull — a move that was deeply unpopular in Victoria.
GILMORE: Current MP Ann Sudmalis is retiring, setting up a three-tiered contest between Liberal candidate (and former Labor Party President) Warren Mundine, who has to defend a margin of .07%, from Nationals candidate Katrina Hodgkinson and Labor’s Fiona Phillips. This one could go anywhere.
COWPER: Former Independent MP Rob Oakeshott is looking to make a comeback, and stands a pretty good chance of taking Cowper, where the current Coalition MP is retiring.
There are a bunch of other marginal seats around the country that could go either way, they include Capricornia, Flynn, and Forde in Queensland; Lindsay, Reid, Banks and Robertson in NSW; Chisholm, Corangamite, Higgins, Indi and Dunkley in Victoria; Pearce, Cowan and Hasluck in WA; Boothby in South Australia; and Braddon in Tasmania.
What About The Minor Parties?
As mentioned, the minor parties are expected to play a major role in this election. First, there’s One Nation, who picked up four Senate seats in 2016, and are looking to build on that tally this time around. But a series of scandals have seen their poll numbers drop.
Then there’s Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, who were wiped out in 2016, but are gaining in the polls thanks to the estimated $50 million Clive Palmer is spending on advertising at the moment.
Neither party is likely to win a seat in the House of Representatives, but could pick up a few seats in the Senate. Whoever wins government is probably going to have to negotiate with one or both of these parties to actually get anything done.
Meanwhile, the Greens are polling steadily at around 9%. They’ll probably hold their one Lower House seat (Adam Bandt in Melbourne), and will be hoping to pick up one or two more in Victoria, like Higgins and Macnamara, but that seems unlikely.
What Are Major Parties Policies?
Depends who you ask. Labor has (very bravely) put a lot of big policies on the table for years, including massive investments in health care and early education, as well as ending tax breaks like negative gearing and franking credits, which tend to benefit wealthier, older people. In 2016, Malcolm Turnbull tried to run a positive campaign, meaning he didn’t spend much time attacking Labor. That didn’t work so well for the Coalition, and Scott Morrison isn’t going to make the same mistake again.
He’s running a big scare campaign against Labor’s tax, environment and housing policies. The main thrust of his message seems to be “Labor will tax you more and make you poor”. It’s true that ScoMo is offering larger tax cuts than Labor, but most of those tax cuts will benefit high earners, and they won’t kick in for years.
Meanwhile, Labor is trying to run a more positive campaign, focusing heavily on health, education and climate change, where they have an advantage over the government (although ScoMo would tell you Labor’s policies are too expensive). Labor is also campaigning against the chaos and disunity within the government. Their message is that a vote for Scott Morrison is really just a vote for Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton. And those guys suck.
Beyond significant income tax cuts, the government actually doesn’t have a very big agenda at this election. It’s hoping that trying to scare people off voting for Labor will be enough.
But don’t take our word for it. You can read the policies for the major parties here:
- Liberal party election policies.
- Labor election policies.
- Greens’ election policies.
- Nationals’ election policies (at the time of writing, this page was blank. Lol).
We won’t be linking to One Nation’s or Clive Palmer’s policies, because, well, y’know…
Rob Stott is the Managing Editor at Junkee Media. Yell at him about politics on Twitter @Rob_Stott.