Here’s Why Nothing In The Budget Matters
Don't believe the government's hype.
Nothing in the budget announced last night by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg actually matters, because none of it will ever be passed by this Parliament.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison will soon drive to Government House — possibly as early as this weekend — to call an election, and everything his Treasurer said in Parliament last night will be revealed for what it always was going to be — just the first shot in an election race.
The Budget Is A Huge Waste Of Time
Australia’s annual Budget announcement night is a unique beast. Most countries don’t do it the way Australia does — hundreds of journalists filing into the ‘lockup’, away from their phones and the internet for five hours, forced to actually read and analyse a document without Google to help.
It sounds great in theory — a chance to extricate yourself from the 24-hour news cycle and actually just do your job. But in truth, the lockup only serves the government of the day. Journalists are provided with an army of public service experts to provide clarity around a document written by the government. And the Coalition’s big hitters — the PM, Treasurer and Finance Minister get access to the a captive press gallery to sell their message.
At 7.30, when the embargo lifts, every news outlet rushes to be ‘first’, pumping out their stories as fast possible to get that sweet traffic hit, before all of the journos bugger off to one of Canberra’s three pubs to get pissed with the politicians, lobbyists and public servants they’re supposed to report on. The real analysis comes in the days after the Budget, as the hidden nasties rise to the top. But by then, the Government has already had a day to set the narrative.
At least this time, there’s less of a charade around the Budget. It’s a nakedly political document, designed to make as many friends as possible while creating no new enemies. There’s something for everyone, including tax cuts for most Australians, and plenty of funding for infrastructure, schools and hospitals. Who doesn’t love health, education and roads? There are the usual good news stories for the government to spin — more funding for mental health and relief for drought stricken farmers. If you’re white, employed, and middle-to-upper-class, you’ve got nothing to complain about.
And because this is a Coalition Budget, it pisses off the usual suspects. For Indigenous Australians, there’s a wider rollout of the controversial cashless welfare card. Funding cuts continue for the ABC and there’s no increase in the Newstart allowance. There’s nothing in this budget for young people, but young people don’t vote for the Coalition, so why bother?
Scott Morrison on Newstart pic.twitter.com/QJefEUrbcb
— ABC News (@abcnews) April 2, 2019
The main headline coming out of the Budget is that Australia is “back in black”, as Josh Frydenberg shouted at the beginning of his speech. The Treasurer claims we’re in surplus for the first time in 12 years, but that’s not true. We are forecast to be in surplus at the end of the 2019-20 financial year — that’s 15 months away. And as Labor learned when it was in power, Treasury forecasts have a nasty habit of not coming to fruition.
Frydenberg may well be proven right, but by the time he is, he’s unlikely to be the Treasurer. It will probably be Labor’s Chris Bowen who finally gets to announce an actual surplus. Which brings us to the most important point…
Nothing In This Budget Matters
Today’s the last day the Senate will sit before the election is called, while the House of representatives rises tomorrow. There’s no time for the government to pass any of the measures contained in the Budget.
This isn’t a budget, it’s an election manifesto.
Josh Frydenberg admitted as much to reporters in the lockup last night. “It’s a package. We are taking that to the Australian people,” he told reporters.
If Labor wins the election, as seems likely, Bill Shorten has already announced the new Government will hold a mini-budget to reveal its own priorities. In the unlikely event the Coalition pulls off a victory, you can bet it will want to make some changes, especially if it’s going to come up against another disagreeable Senate.
There’s a pretty good chance that nothing Josh Frydenberg announced last night will ever actually happen.
So just remember, as you see the PM and Treasurer out on the hustings over the next few days, trying to tell you the country is “back in black and back on track”, none of it matters.
Rob Stott is the Managing Editor of Junkee. You can yell at him about politics on Twitter @Rob_Stott, and he will probably mute you.